Devastating Wildfires Ravage Los Angeles, Researchers Are Demystifying the "Unknown Fire Causes"
Los Angeles County is facing one of the most destructive firestorms in recent history, with three major wildfires scorching communities and prompting mass evacuations. More than 2,000 structures have been damaged or destroyed, and at least five people have died.
The Eaton Fire, which erupted Tuesday night near Altadena and Pasadena, has burned 10,600 acres as of Wednesday evening, fueled by wind gusts of up to 99 mph. Five bodies were found within the Eaton Fire perimeter, with causes of death still under investigation.
The Palisades Fire, burning in Pacific Palisades, has charred over 15,800 acres and reached the Pacific Coast Highway. While there have been no reported fatalities from this fire, there have been a "high number of significant injuries to residents who did not evacuate."
The third major fire, the Hurst Fire in Sylmar, has burned 700 acres.
All three fires are currently 0% contained, and the causes are under investigation.
The ongoing disaster highlights a growing concern in wildfire management: the increasing number of wildfires with unknown or missing causes. According to a recent study published in Earth's Future, this lack of knowledge poses a significant challenge to developing effective prevention strategies.
Researchers are using machine learning to help understand the causes of wildfires.
A research article "Inference of wildfire causes from their physical, biological, social and management attributes" publish on Earth's Future, is an extreme timely piece. The study analyzed 150,247 wildfires that ignited across the western United States from 1992 to 2020, using a variety of factors to retroactively assign causes to fires where the origin was unknown. The study found that equipment and vehicle use, arson, and debris burning were the most common causes.
Worryingly, the research also revealed statistically significant increases in the annual number of fires attributed to:
- Arson and incendiarism
- Equipment and vehicle use
- Debris and open burning
The study underscores the need for improved investigation and reporting of wildfire causes, as well as the development of targeted prevention strategies based on the specific causes of ignition. As wildfires become more frequent and destructive, understanding their origins is crucial for protecting lives, property, and natural resources.
Timeline of the Wildfire Events:
2024
- December 14, 9:00 PM MST: The Horton Fire ignites near Promontory Point on the Mogollon Rim in the Tonto National Forest, Arizona.
- December 14 - December 16: Tonto National Forest-Payson Ranger District firefighters are first on the scene, followed by an ad hoc Type 3 team. Suppression efforts begin focusing on containment lines on Promontory Butte, Horton Creek drainage, and above See Canyon.
- December 30, 5:00 PM MST: Southwest Area Incident Management Team 1 assumes command of the Horton Fire, upgrading the response to a Complex Incident Management Team. A Forest closure order is implemented for public safety.
2025
- January 2, 2025: A public meeting regarding the Horton Fire is held.
- January 6, 2025: Another public meeting regarding the Horton Fire is held.
- January 7, 6:18 PM PST: The Eaton Fire is reported near Eaton Canyon in Pasadena, California. Challenging weather conditions and difficult terrain hinder suppression efforts. Evacuations are ordered.
- January 8:Morning: Multiple significant wildfires burn across the western United States, leading to increased demands on resources.
- 5:00 PM PST: The Angeles National Forest is closed to the public due to the Eaton Fire.
- Afternoon: The National Preparedness Level is raised to 2, signifying significant wildfire activity requiring national support.
- Evening: The Horton Fire Daily Update reports 8,337 acres burned, 23% containment, and 525 personnel assigned. Cold weather is aiding containment efforts.
- Overnight: Strong Santa Ana winds fuel rapid growth of the Eaton and Palisades Fires, destroying over 2,000 structures and causing five fatalities.
- January 9, 1:28 AM PST: The Eaton Fire InciWeb page is updated, reporting 10,600 acres burned and 879 personnel assigned. Evacuation orders remain in effect.
Undated Events:
- The Pourmohamad et al. study on wildfire causes is published in Earth's Future, analyzing 2.3 million wildfire records from 1992 to 2020, including the Horton Fire.
- The Hurst Fire burns 700 acres in Sylmar, California, contributing to the widespread firestorm affecting Los Angeles County.
